http://www.rbs.com/ Copyright (c) RBS 2008. All rights reserved. *GMOnlineCommunications@rbs.com *GMOnlineCommunications@rbs.com http://ci.rbs.com/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:09:59 GMT http://www.rbs.com:80/images/templates/logo.gif http://www.rbs.com/ 173 80 Weekly strategy documents from the RBS Corporate & Institutional web site. 60 http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200901232285768&folder=WEBCAT011 Our forecast that the Q1 activity indicators would not continue to fall by the same extent as in Q4 is tracking. The numbers for some euro area leading indicators are still very weak but they are no longer a direct challenge to the ECB's new scenario. Silvio Peruzzo & Jacques Cailloux 200901232285768 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 17:35:50 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200901192285476&folder=WEBCAT011 Whether rates will to around 0.5% will be dictated by a number of factors: (i) the changing perception by the ECB of risks surrounding a full blown credit crunch or deflation scenario; (ii) whether or not financial markets and leading indicators in Q1 do actually improve as we expect and (iii) whether actions from governments prove to be successful or not. Our monitoring of these drivers will shape our view of the policy rate this year. Silvio Peruzzo 200901192285476 Mon, 19 Jan 2009 09:07:23 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200901092285067&folder=WEBCAT011 We forecast euro area industrial production to contract by around 10% on average this year with a peak to trough contraction close to 15%. Around 2 million jobs in the manufacturing sector look at risk over the next 12 months. For reference average euro area industrial production contracted by 4.6% y/y in 1993 (with a 9% contraction peak to trough) and by 2.6% in Q3 01/Q1 02 (-1.9% peak to trough). Jacques Cailloux & Silvio Peruzzo 200901092285067 Fri, 09 Jan 2009 14:57:02 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200812122284299&folder=WEBCAT011 We do not believe the ECB will be able to wait until February for its next move: the deterioration in the economy is such that a 50bps cut at the January meeting remains our baseline scenario. Silvio Peruzzo 200812122284299 Fri, 12 Dec 2008 17:11:17 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200812082283973&folder=WEBCAT011 Last week's ECB decision to lower the policy rate by 75bps, the largest amount in its history, underlines once again the inability of its communication strategy to foster a genuine understanding of the monetary policy decisions. More details in the Euro Area Weekly. The document includes euro area 2010 forecasts on page 2. Silvio Peruzzo 200812082283973 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 08:17:10 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200811212283268&folder=WEBCAT011 Euro area inflation could fall to 2.3% in November from 3.2% in October. The RINF inflation forecast for November back in the summer picked at 3.5%, 120 basis points above our current forecast.... Jacques Cailloux 200811212283268 Fri, 21 Nov 2008 16:31:25 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200811072282429&folder=WEBCAT011 Pdt Trichet avoided mentioning the ''R'' word at the November meeting. We believe that was the last chance he had to do so. Indeed, we expect the ECB Staff projections to show a likely -0.4% contraction (depending on next week's GDP Q3 reports) in 2009 GDP when they are published in December (RBS euro area 2009 GDP -0.8%).... Jacques Cailloux 200811072282429 Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:22:31 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200810312282054&folder=WEBCAT011 We forecast that the euro area will contract by 0.8% on average in 2009. This will be the deepest recession in more than 40 years. Under this forecast, around 1.5 million of people will loose their job. In our views this will force the ECB to slash rate to 1.75% in 2009 Jacques Cailloux 200810312282054 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:25:45 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200810242281670&folder=WEBCAT011 Euro area consumer and business confidence are falling sharply. Weaker consumer spending, contraction in exports growth and some credit rationing will drive the euro area into a full blown recession. The economy will feel seismic waves........... Jacques Cailloux 200810242281670 Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:33:51 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200810162281182&folder=WEBCAT011 A toxic mix of banking and financial crises is likely to trigger an unstable equilibrium between lenders and borrowers, this will force the ECB to cut rates more aggressively.... Jacques Cailloux 200810162281182 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 08:40:53 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200907312293456&folder=rbsm0067 Ross Walker & Jason Simpson 200907312293456 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 10:15:20 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200907032292309&folder=rbsm0067 Ross Walker & Jason Simpson 200907032292309 Fri, 03 Jul 2009 11:22:44 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200906242291899&folder=rbsm0067 Ross Walker 200906242291899 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:09:30 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200906122291388&folder=rbsm0067 Ross Walker 200906122291388 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 10:17:22 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200906032290970&folder=rbsm0067 Ross Walker 200906032290970 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:27:25 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200905112289991&folder=rbsm0067 Ross Walker 200905112289991 Mon, 11 May 2009 13:48:42 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200904062288717&folder=rbsm0067 The UK is running public sector deficits that are large in both historical terms and relative to many other advanced economies. Among the major economies the UK has suffered one of the largest deteriorations in the structural - or cyclically-adjusted - deficit. RBS forecasts Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) of £145bn, 10.5% of GDP, in 2009-10 rising to £155bn, 11% of GDP, in 2010-11 - even larger than when the UK went 'cap in hand' to the IMF in 1976 (7.0%). The main revenue streams are already drying-up, led by a 6% y/y fall (£2.8bn) in corporation tax receipts. As the labour market deteriorates over the course of 2009 and 2010, income tax and national insurance revenues (45% of total revenues) are forecast to fall by a combined £23bn this year and next. Weaker consumer demand and the cut in the VAT have already brought about a fall in revenues and we forecast a 14%, £11bn, fall in 2009-10 financial year. This means another bumper year for issuance with our forecast for a gross funding need for 2009-10 of £191bn (CGNCR £173bn + redemptions of £18bn). Of this circa £185bn will be in gilts, a 25% rise on FY2008-09. This is expected to be split along the same lines as the preliminary funding remit which means £80bn Shorts, £41bn Mediums, £38bn Longs and £26bn Linkers. Ross Walker 200904062288717 Mon, 06 Apr 2009 10:04:36 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200901222285685&folder=rbsm0067 The UK has not yet embarked on quantitative easing (QE) but a framework is being implemented which would allow this transition. The new BoE asset purchase programme marks a radical evolution in the UK policy armoury, with the central bank set to assume a more direct role in credit provision to non-financial businesses and, in consequence, take on credit risk. At this stage, these asset purchases will be funded by the issuance of short-term paper by the Treasury and will not involve an expansion of the money supply - and the UK authorities appear to be making considerable efforts to rein-in expectations about their turning to the printing presses. Some form of QE is likely, but it may well turn out to be a largely symbolic gesture. Ross Walker 200901222285685 Thu, 22 Jan 2009 14:54:14 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200901162285390&folder=rbsm0067 Next week's UK data releases provide something of a microcosm for the year ahead. Q4's preliminary GDP estimate will bring official confirmation that the UK is in recession - and with an alarming doubling in the pace of decline. Services output will look distinctly fragile, with broad-based contraction across the private sector in November/Q4 and retail sales are set to report a slump in December. Inflation will tumble following the VAT cut, heavy pre-Christmas price discounting and (on RPI) mortgage interest rate cuts. The public finances will post huge deficits, notably on PSNCR as the bank recapitalisations reach the books. Ross Walker 200901162285390 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 09:14:49 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200812182284608&folder=rbsm0067 The economy is on course for full-year growth of 0.7% in 2008, the weakest expansion since 1992. As contagion spreads from the financial sector to the real economy and the labour market, 2009 is likely to witness the most severe contraction in GDP (-2.0%) since the brutal recession of 1980-81. Unemployment is accelerating towards 2 million and is set to hit 3 million (10%) by the end of 2009 - this will be the economy's defining characteristic next year. Structural imbalances will be a millstone around the neck of any recovery, with trend growth likely to remain elusive until into 2010. There are two positives for next year: sharp declines in inflation will provide some support for disposable incomes and will, in turn, allow the MPC to follow in the US Fed's slipstream by closing in on zero rates (starting with a 50bp cut to 1½% on January 8) before pursuing more radical quantitative easing. Ross Walker 200812182284608 Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:23:28 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200907032292326&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200907032292326 Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:05:11 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200906262292026&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200906262292026 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:25:34 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200906192291705&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200906192291705 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:12:52 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200906122291404&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200906122291404 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 15:21:13 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200906052291085&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200906052291085 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:06:15 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200905292290808&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200905292290808 Fri, 29 May 2009 15:42:59 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200905222290542&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200905222290542 Fri, 22 May 2009 15:13:33 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200905152290226&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200905152290226 Fri, 15 May 2009 13:28:43 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200905082289937&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200905082289937 Fri, 08 May 2009 16:41:47 GMT http://ci.rbs.com/psp/public/pagebuilder.aspx?page=gp4011&id=200905012289665&folder=WEBCAT005 Please see the attached Global Weekly Economic Calendar. Research Team 200905012289665 Fri, 01 May 2009 14:48:17 GMT